Net imports of primary aluminum fell by double digits again in June, with poor transactions amid high aluminum prices during the off-season [SMM Analysis]

SMM News on July 22:

Primary Aluminum Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum imports in June 2025 were approximately 192,400 mt, down 13.8% MoM and up 58.7% YoY. From January to June, the cumulative total of domestic primary aluminum imports was about 1.2499 million mt, up 2.5% YoY.

Primary Aluminum Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum exports in June 2025 were approximately 19,600 mt, down 39.5% MoM and up 179.4% YoY. From January to June, the cumulative total of domestic primary aluminum exports was about 86,600 mt, up approximately 206.6% YoY.

Net Primary Aluminum Imports: In June 2025, domestic net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 mt, down 9.4% MoM and up 51.3% YoY. From January to June, the cumulative total of domestic net primary aluminum imports was about 1.1633 million mt, down 2.3% YoY.

(The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.)

From the perspective of import source countries, the main sources of domestic primary aluminum imports in June 2025 were the Russian Federation, Indonesia, India, Australia, Malaysia, Iran, and other countries and regions. Among them, primary aluminum imports from Russia in June were approximately 162,400 mt, down significantly by 22.01% MoM, accounting for 84.44% of May's imports. Currently, overseas primary aluminum imports are in a loss-making state, with import losses oscillating around 1,400 yuan/mt. Weak overseas demand has stimulated overseas supplies to enter China. However, from the perspective of the spot market, domestic demand has entered the off-season, and aluminum prices remain high, with downstream purchase intentions being poor. Some imported supplies are trading at significant discounts in the spot market but with few transactions. Currently, net primary aluminum imports are mainly for the execution of long-term contracts.

From the perspective of trade modes: Looking at the trade modes of primary aluminum imports in June, the Ordinary Trade mode saw a significant MoM decline, exceeding 60%, mainly due to the strong off-season atmosphere domestically and the difficulty in absorbing imported supplies. In addition, it is worth noting that the Processing with Imported Materials trade mode showed a remarkable MoM growth, with Processing with Imported Materials increasing by 293.49% MoM and Processing with Imported Materials increasing by 358.03% MoM. Currently, the total aluminum ingots imported through Processing with Imported Materials and Processing with Imported Materials modes in the first half of 2025 was 45,900 mt. With the increasing enthusiasm of domestic processing enterprises to apply for manual processing and considerations such as business profits, it is expected that the volume of manual processing trade modes will show a growth trend in the future.

SMM Commentary: Currently, aluminum prices still maintain the trend of overseas market outperforming domestic market. The domestic import window is closed, with import losses oscillating around 1,400 yuan/mt. Coupled with the current weak domestic demand, it is difficult for imported supplies to be traded in the spot market. The enthusiasm for overseas shipments to China has weakened. It is expected that net primary aluminum imports will remain at a low level in July.